Bus manufacturers await national strategy

In November, having just bailed out Transport for London, the UK Government announced a Ten Point Plan for a ‘green recovery.’ Prominent among the proposals was increased support for buses, which have been severely impacted by lockdowns, social distancing and declines in ridership. Here, Roger Brereton, Head of Sales at steering system specialist, Pailton Engineering, reflects on a challenging year for buses

In February, the UK government pledged £5 billion of investment toward walking, cycling and buses, including incentives for bus electrification. The following month, everything changed. With lockdowns and social distancing, bus ridership levels, already at historically low levels before the pandemic, fell off the cliff edge.

Bus manufacturers and operators were faced with a period of unprecedented uncertainty. New bus and coach registrations fell by over 77% in the second quarter of 2020, with a mere 328 vehicles joining UK roads. Similar falls were reported across a Covid-battered Europe.

During the summer, as lockdown measures were lifted, passenger levels failed to return to previous levels. In many places, they returned to approximately 60% of pre-Covid capacity, but in London the figure was approximately 35%. It is likely that different levels of remote working and different rules for social distancing explain these variations.

[wlm_nonmember][…] [/wlm_nonmember] [wlm_ismember] There are also worrying reports that 2020 has encouraged a more permanent change in attitudes toward using public transport. Survey data from around the world is showing that while many people recognise the impact of anthropogenic climate change, they are still reporting they will be more likely to use their cars after the pandemic.

In July, Sadiq Khan sat before the House of Commons Transport Committee and pleaded with MPs for greater funding for London’s public transport. The British capital, the mayor explained, was more heavily impacted than other global cities because of differences in the funding arrangements.

Transport for London derives 80% of its revenue from passenger fees. In Madrid, the equivalent figure is 48% and in Paris, it is 37%. London was thus uniquely vulnerable to the impact of remote working, social distancing and lockdowns, which threatened to decimate TfL’s financial position.

Fortunately, the government has recognised the impact of the pandemic on TfL and the public transport sector and has now agreed a bailout worth up to £1.8 billion to make up for the lost revenue. Underpinning this decision was recognition of the vital importance that public transport plays both in the economic recovery and meeting the government’s carbon reduction targets. This was a positive sign amid a uniquely difficult year for public transport.

The subsequent announcement of the government’s Ten Point Plan provides more reassuring news for buses and was welcomed by the UK’s largest bus manufacturer, Alexander Dennis. At a time where there will be great pressures on public spending into the future, the reiteration of the £5 billion investment announced last February is a good thing.

The Ten Point plan is intended to demonstrate Britain’s route to carbon zero by 2050 and lay the groundwork for a ‘green recovery.’ Critics are right to point out that it is quite vague, but rhetorical pledges are often a first step toward more concrete proposals. As for buses, there are already some firm commitments in there.

Point Five, which addresses public transport, promises that £120 million will be invested in electric buses in early 2021, to begin the introduction of at least 4,000 electric buses. This would represent 12% of the country’s operating fleet and is approximately equal to the total number of electric buses in Europe in 2020.

There are also promises to increase bus lanes, introduce more smart ticketing and increase services in rural areas. Above all, the simple fact that buses get so many mentions in the Ten Point Plan should assure manufacturers and operators that buses still occupy a central role in the government’s future plans, regardless of whether we might agree or disagree about specific proposals.

However, any firm conclusions we might draw from this are premature. That is because the proof will be in the pudding or, in this case, the National Bus Strategy. The Ten Point Plan pledges a National Bus Strategy as part of the £5 billion investment. We can therefore expect a far more comprehensive set of proposals very soon.

When exactly will this strategy be formed? According to the document, this strategy will be published early this year, a timetable that was reiterated by the Transport Secretary in the House of Commons. We will have to wait until the publication of the National Bus Strategy before assessing whether its proposals will be sufficient given the challenges that buses face, but it looks like we will only have to wait until spring at the latest.

Communicating effectively will be almost as important as the size of any spending pledges. With recent events having deterred people from using public transport, effectively communicating that buses are safe to use will be essential in preventing a temporary aversion from solidifying into a permanent change in public behaviour.

Support will have to be targeted as well. The TfL bailout was good in that it was founded on a recognition that revenues played a disproportionate part in sustaining London’s transport system. The support therefore needs to be flexible as different regions and areas will have different challenges.

Bus manufacturers and their suppliers will need to be flexible too. Speaking from the perspective of a parts supplier, we are acutely aware of the need to offer bespoke parts and design flexibility to cater for an emerging technology like e-buses.

It has been an incredibly difficult year for public transport, buses included. However, recent moves from the government indicate that buses still occupy a central position in the strategy for a green recovery. We will all eagerly await the National Bus Strategy, but as we look toward the end of this difficult period, we can be quietly confident that better times lie ahead.

Pailton Engineering supplies heavy duty steering systems and components to bus manufacturers. To find out more, visit pailton.com

[/wlm_ismember]