Finding the way forward

James Day attends the 2018 UK Bus Summit, which once again saw Government presence and interest from big names across the industry

The UK Bus Summit returned to the QEII Conference Centre in the heart of Westminster on February 8 for its fourth year, with its proximity to the Houses of Parliament once again securing speakers from the Government along with the usual high-calibre bus industry managers. The main theme this year seemed to be the benefits of retrofitting, and how it can quickly improve air quality without the great expense of fleet replacement.

Delegates came from a wide range of different backgrounds, with the largest delegation from local authorities, representing 26% of all attendees and showing that the summit is doing a good job of reaching the authorities with the power to implement many of the changes that bus operators have been asking for.

While the subject matter was often serious, such as air quality concerns and the congestion threat, the conference was once again a light-hearted affair, with many speakers joking with the audience and each other. There was a real sense of amiability and the feeling that people were amongst friends, not just colleagues.

Transport Times CEO Professor David Begg introduced the event once again, highlighting the congestion problem which is the scourge of the bus industry and the fact diesel cars are the biggest source of NOx emissions.

“I was flabbergasted to learn that the new diesel Euro 6 buses produce less NOx emission than new diesel cars,” he said. “Not only that, but we can trust these excellent figures because the vehicles are tested on the road. We’ve lost confidence in the testing carried out by car manufacturers.”[wlm_nonmember][…]

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Nusrat Ghani announces massive new bus retrofit fund

The new UK Buses Minister, Nusrat Ghani MP was the first speaker of the day, making her first formal speech in her new role. She stated that there had been a Government ‘tussle’ over which minister was given control of coach and bus legislation, arguing that it is not an unloved or unwanted portfolio.

She described the industry as indispensable, providing a unique answer to most of the transport challenges the country faces, but often being taken for granted.

“One of the biggest obstacles to growth is road congestion, which is nothing new,” she began. “I want to use the Bus Services Act to encourage authorities to make bus services more attractive and create a shift away from car use.

“We need to enforce the narrative that rather than contributing to the problem of nose-to-tail traffic congestion and harmful pollution, buses and coaches are part of the solution.”

Nusrat highlighted the green credentials of the UK bus market, supported by investment from Government. Building on this, she used the summit to make the announcement of £40m of funding for 20 local authorities as part of the Clean Bus Technology Fund. This will be used to retrofit around 2,700 buses.

The funding had initially intended to be split across several rounds, but the Department for Transport (DfT) took the decision to release it all at once because of the large number of strong applications this time around.

“Ultimately, we see dedicated, ultra-low emission buses as the long-term answer, but we see retrofitting as a viable answer for now,” Nusrat added. “It will help ensure more buses are contributing to cleaning up the air in our cities.

“I see the future as full of opportunity. As road transport is transformed over the coming decades, buses will become more important than ever, and I will be doing all I can to promote them.”

SESSION 1: The Role of the Bus in Reducing Emissions

Claire Haigh – All must play their part

Like all presentations in the first session, Greener Journeys CEO, Claire Haigh, focused on air quality. She suggested that it may be too early to know just how serious the UK’s air quality crisis is, stating that while the pollution on the streets today may not be as visible as the smog seen in London in the 1950s, the health impact may still be comparable.

“This is a crisis which affects all of us, and we all have our part to play,” Claire said.

“A particular burden falls on road transport, because it is such a large contributor to pollution. Congestion is not just a strain on our economy – it kills, with vehicles in traffic producing four times as much pollution.

“While it is essential that all modes of transport clean up their act, it is also essential that congestion is the cornerstone of any air quality policy.”

On the role of central Government, Claire said the current guidance falls short, because vehicles are targeted in the exact reverse order of their impact on air quality. She said diesel cars and vans should be targeted first, not excluded, but the Government has repeatedly shied away from taking decisions which would anger motorists. She also said clean air zones which targeted buses more than other forms of transport were doomed to fail, because they only generate about 6% of harmful emissions from traffic.

“Passing all the responsibility for difficult decisions to local councils will not be sufficient,” she added.

David Brown – priority for aggregated journeys

Go-Ahead Group CEO, David Brown, began his presentation by speaking about how global populations were moving into urban environments, and while people seemed happy to share their living space, this does not transfer to the roads.

“Air is a public good which belongs to everyone, as is road space,” said David. “Like air, when road space is full of all the wrong things, it’s not delivering the benefits it should.”

Adding weight to the argument that tackling congestion is the best way to improve air quality, David pointed out that large volumes of small electric vehicles would still produce particulate matter, because of wear on tyres and brakes. He said it is therefore important to promote the most productive vehicles – those which aggregate journeys.

He stated: “There are times when the need to do things for the public good outweighs the public’s desires, like car ownership and one hour deliveries to the door. These are conversations we must have before the air turns toxic and roads grind to a halt.

“Retrofitting is an excellent way of spending money. The move to electric is inhibited by vehicle and infrastructure costs, and as a result the most affordable current vehicles need to be kept in service.”

Sir Peter Hendy – the oldest vehicles can still be clean

A brief video was shown where Sir Peter Hendy, former Commissioner of TfL, spoke about retrofit work carried out by Cummins on his Routemaster, a vehicle which was displayed outside the QEII centre throughout the day.

He said the Low Carbon Certified Cummins Euro 6 Repower retrofit had been a success technically, but also made the point: “This shows that even the oldest vehicle you can imagine can be fitted with a modern engine and clean exhaust aftertreatment.”

Cummins claims the retrofit will result in the Routemaster’s running costs reducing by between £1,500 and £2,500 annually, based on its mileage of 20-30,000.

Sir Peter was also full of praise for the Cummins diagnostic system which is a feature of the retrofit, allowing him to track the bus on his mobile phone and see what it is up to as well as being notified of any issues.

Winfried Dölling – Buses cleaner than cars

Twintec Baumot’s Winfried Dölling echoed Claire Haigh’s comments on the invisibility of London’s pollution, stating that while London may look clean with its successful public transport network, the pollution is something ‘we can’t see anymore.’

He discussed the company’s own retrofit programme, which usually removes original OE systems and adds in a new PM/NOx reduction system, which improves emission performance to beyond Euro 6 levels once installed.

“Our system is not a cheap aftermarket add-on,” Winfried said. “It’s a high-quality OE-like system which has the ability to be fitted with a pre-developed kit onto a number of buses used widely in the UK.”

Winfried said the Baumot retrofit produces results better than Euro 6, even tackling emissions not in Euro 6 legislation such as NO2.

The results he displayed showed an Enviro400 being reduced to producing 134mg of NOx per kilometre travelled, and an Enviro200 to 64mg. Both results were better than all but two Euro 6 cars tested in real world conditions in Berlin, which posted results up to 1,380mg per km (Fiat 500 2.0 Cross 4×4) and could scarcely be called green at all in comparison. Winfried stated that once the emission trace per passenger was considered, the emissions produced by a retrofitted bus were effectively almost zero.

Praise for UK Bus Manufacturers

Professor David Begg highlighted the achievements of the UK’s bus manufacturing industry, and invited Colin Robertson from Alexander Dennis Ltd (ADL), Mark Nodder from Wrightbus and Graham Belgum from Optare to the stage.

Graham Belgum said that the bus manufacturers were achieving such good results on emissions because of thorough testing carried out at Millbrook to prove vehicles were performing as they should, and Mark added that the heavy-duty testing cycle for buses is very different to that of car manufacturers, some of whom had been ‘caught with their hands in the the till.’

Colin Robertson added: “Buses have been right in the target zone forever. While buses only produce 6% of emissions, we are the guys who sadly still get the headlines when it comes to poor air quality.”

David Begg encouraged the industry to support UK manufacturing, highlighting that the challenge of peaks and troughs in vehicle orders could see them needing to reduce staff numbers and be unable to meet demand at a later date. Mark Nodder added: “We will do everything we can to be sure we’re ready, but it’s not easy when you’ve let engineering talent go. You can’t just turn the sausage machine on.

“It will be a pity if when decisions are made we don’t have the capacity to satisfy the demand and have to sit back and see a foreign invasion.”

SESSION 2 – The Road Map to Zero Emissions

Gareth Powell – Immediacy of retrofitting

“One of the statistics close to my heart as a parent is that there are 443 primary schools in London in areas of poor air quality,” began Gareth Powell, TfL’s Managing Director of Surface Transport.
While the day’s second session concerned zero emission vehicles, Gareth said that while such vehicles are the end goal, it’s vital to take advantage of the stepping-stone of retrofitting to improve air quality immediately.

He mentioned London’s new toxicity charge, implemented for the worst polluting vehicles, which is a small step setting the tone for future changes, such as the ULEZ in April 2019.

“There is a clear two-three year timeframe where we move to a much better outcome in terms of emission standards,” he continued.

“Euro 6 diesel is exceptionally clean. If we just waited until the tech catches up for zero emission, we would miss a good decade of air quality benefits that it can bring.

“All of our buses will need to comply with the ULEZ. We are in the middle of a massive retrofit programme and have about 4,200 vehicles to do in the next couple of years. We’re making rapid progress, but it is a huge challenge and a great example of the partnership from all sorts of players in our industry. It is a fantastic example of what the industry can do to move quickly and make a real difference.”

Gareth said TfL was initially retrofitting vehicles operating in areas with the worst air quality – areas it was calling low emission bus zones. He said the results from the two which are already live have been ‘absolutely breathtaking.’

“Before the retrofit, the areas were exceeding hourly pollution limits over 1,200 times annually. That rate has been reduced by 90% since.”

Andy Eastlake – a sense of urgency

Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership (LowCVP) Managing Director, Andy Eastlake, was critical of how there is ‘a plan for all seasons’ to tackle emissions, but not enough action.

He displayed several documents on screen and said: “If I presented some of these plans as my approach, I don’t think my boss would accept them as a way to solve the problem when you look at what they require. We have a plan for someone else to do the job, a plan to spend some money, and a plan to make another plan.”

Andy was dismissive of the DfT’s plan to stop the sale of diesel vehicles in 2040, arguing that stopping people from buying something in 23 years’ time was not going far enough.

“Fortunately, it’s not all bad news,” he said. “We’re working out our own plan and defining our own strategy for cleaner air and low energy consumption.

“We know we need to have pragmatic pathways. We can’t possibly change the whole UK bus fleet to zero emissions in two years. But we have led the way in getting good evidence and we’re not sitting still.

“Over the last three years, our tests have got more and more challenging. They are without a doubt the toughest anywhere in Europe.”

On the topic of LEZs, Andy said it is important to enforce a set of common standards: “The last thing we want is a different standard for each zone and have people not knowing where they can go in which vehicles. I’m encouraged to say that apart from one small exception, all the planned zones are the same.”

Andy suggested some alternative targets for the bus industry to meet. These were:

• For every new bus in 2020 to be low emission – certainly no more purchases of Euro 5 buses;
• For 10% of new buses in 2020 to be fully electric; and
• For every bus in 2025 to be ultra-low emission.

“We should be embracing LEZs – they are the biggest opportunity to display the benefits of our buses,” Andy added.

Andy concluded by stating that the bus industry is currently in-front of the automotive industry: “We currently have a narrow window where Euro 6 buses are cleaner than most Euro 6 cars, but car manufacturers are working to close this gap.

“Another thing you often hear the automotive industry talking about is CASE – Connected, Autonomous, Shared and Electric vehicles. From a passenger perspective, they think of connected as the ability to watch a film while they travel, automated to be the fact they do not need to drive, shared to mean they do not own or need to maintain the vehicles, and electric to be clean and low emission.

“The electric bus already delivers this. The rest of the automotive sector needs to catch up with the bus.”

Giles Fearnley – The bus is the future

Giles Fearnley, Managing Director of First Bus, gave a strongly worded talk on the bus industry’s future role.

“The bus sector has not got a great deal of reach in some quarters,” he began. “It’s too often seen as a transport dinosaur, and the perception in many minds is that we’ve had 50 years of decline and there will be more of the same in the future.

“But don’t be fooled – we are the future. The industry is absolutely up for the challenge and on the way back. I’ve never been more confident we have a strong future.”

Giles highlighted the ‘revolution’ in ticketing and information: “Who would have believed 18 months ago that by the end of 2018, 100% of buses will be contactless. In Aberdeen, where we initially launched contactless, we already have 30% of fare paying using it, with more than 20% using mobile. After being live in Cornwall for 10 weeks, 20% are already paying by contactless.

“Who would have believed First would roll-out a multi-operator app, giving passengers choice to make the best decision for them?”

Giles said authorities and operators needed to have constructive discussions about the way forward to zero emissions and increasing bus use, and no longer argue over who has what responsibility.

“I say to the local authorities here – no more treating the bus as an afterthought. No more yo-yoing on policy. We either deliver together, or we deliver nothing.

“No bus manager comes to work wanting to cut services. Our people have huge passion in the workplace. We have got to communicate that passion and demonstrate it to those who are sceptical.”

Robert Drewery – electric overcoming technology barriers

Optare’s Robert Drewery said that the barriers facing electric bus technology were policy related, not technical, and said there was a long way to go before the industry could hit a target of 10% of new vehicles being electric by 2020.

“We firmly believe we have to develop a zero emission future if the bus is going to have a position in future urban transport,” Robert said. “The future will be battery electric – the advances in battery technology are such that we don’t think technologies like hydrogen fuel cells will be needed.”

Robert said the traditional barriers for electric buses are being overcome. He claimed range will be a non-issue within 18 months, with the average electric bus easily able to cover 200 miles on a single charge, enough for the vast majority of bus services. He said overcoming the cost barrier will take longer, but should have been solved by 2025.

“The problem for battery electric is that fuel is such a powerful supply of energy,” Robert explained. “We have effectively been driving around with bombs under our seats for decades, and even though the best diesel engines are still only about 20% efficient, they are still able to generate plenty of power.

“However, electric power is far more efficient. A diesel bus stores 11 times more energy than the best electric bus at the moment, yet it will use five times more energy to travel the same distance.”
Robert said improving battery density was the biggest focus, as more power in less space would allow buses to extend their range without compromising on passenger space. Battery density is improving at such a high rate thanks to the mobile phone market, which is driving development in battery technology thanks to the millions of phones produced every year.

“Cell energy density is up 300% in the last five years against a background of reducing cost and increasing life,” Robert said. “Battery warranties are increasing from two years to seven years. Because of all this, I don’t see energy density being an issue by 2025. Technology like inductive charging will become redundant, like VHS.”

SESSION 3 – Why Are Buses Central to City Economies?

Susan Aitken – Reviving Glasgow’s bus network

The city of Glasgow received praise for including the car in its LEZ plans, unlike most other areas, but its 40% decline in bus patronage in the last decades was described as its most major policy issue.

Cllr Susan Aitken, Leader of Glasgow City Council, said: “The Glasgow city region has one of the best suburban rail networks in the UK, and from a poor standing start we are now making strides on cycling and pedestrian provision.

“However, our deeper longer-term issue lies with the thousands outside the rail network, combined with the low car ownership in the city. Our present bus network just isn’t up to scratch. We want to turn that around.”

Susan said that people who need to are struggling to get to where they need to be, whether due to accessibility or affordability issues.

“Through research, we have clear evidence that the lack of connectivity is limiting opportunities for people and having an impact on inequalities and the economy,” Susan explained.

“In November, I announced the Glasgow connectivity commission to give us a clear evidence-based way forward for transport policy. It is entirely independent and is going to look at public rail, congestion and pollution. The bus sector is absolutely central.

“We have a commitment to introducing the first LEZ in Scotland. Glasgow has some of the worst air quality statistics outside London, and people in the most disadvantaged communities are the victims.

“Buses and using buses well is central to providing the solution to that.”

Lilli Matson – The efficiency of buses

“Buses are at the heart of London’s economy,” began Lilli Matson, Director or Transport Strategy at TfL. “63% of Londoners use the bus every week at it represents 14% of our total mode share. We see buses as at the heart of growing London.” Lilli said TfL has set the objective of achieving 80% mode share of efficient and sustainable transport modes.

“Our transport strategy introduces a new concept of how we manage streets,” she continued. “We’re not in the game of massively increasing road capacity.

“We know we need to make more efficient use of city streets, and that’s where buses come in. They occupy 15% of road space, but move 67% of people kilometres on that road space. They are an incredibly efficient way to move Londoners.

“Buses provide the glue for London’s 24-hour economy. The night-time economy is completely underpinned by the bus, even since the night tube was launched.”

Roger Lawrence – Reversing decline

Wolverhampton City Council Leader, Cllr Roger Lawrence, spoke about the challenges faced in the West Midlands.

“The centre of Birmingham is where a lot of our problems are,” he said. “We have speeds falling, journey times rising and increasing congestion. There are also competing demands for road space.

“Air quality is also a significant challenge for us. The initial plan for the motorways in the West Midlands was for them to go around the Birmingham conurbation, but this was changed because it would improve Birmingham’s economy.

“Because of that change of mind, we now have some of our poorest communities paying the price for the congestion and poor air quality it has caused. Something must be done about that, but the tools to do that are still a bit unclear.”

Roger said buses are very important to the local economy, but are facing some of the greatest challenges they have for some time.

“Over 80% of public transport journeys are by bus,” he said. “The network provides access to 1.2 million jobs. Our bus fleet is getting greener. However, it is declining, and we have to work to reverse that decline.

“Different forms of technology may emerge to challenge supremacy of the bus, but I believe the bus has a future. To achieve that future, we have to have a strong commitment by ourselves and industry partners to deliver the sorts of services that our population expect of us.”

Gary Bartlett – Plan to double bus patronage

Gary Bartlett, Chief Officer for Highways and Transportation at Leeds City Council, discussed the council’s ambitious target to see bus patronage in Leeds double in the next 10 years, which he said will require significant political input and determination from all involved.

He began: “Buses enable us to bring about the city we want to see, which is not dominated by cars.

“Our residents tell us they want the city to be an attractive place and want to see the economy grow, but with less impact on environment.”

Leeds City Council set up what it called a ‘transport conversation,’ to which it received over 8,000 responses. A consistent message throughout these responses was that people wanted cars out of the city centre, more promotion of public transport, additional Park & Ride services and priority for public transport.

A £270m investment programme is planned, including a £173.5m allocation from the DfT and £71m from First Bus, which has committed to investing in 284 new low-emission vehicles by 2020, which will comply with the city’s clean air zone.

As well as work on the core bus network, Gary said the city would be increasing numbers of Park & Ride services.

“We were initially told by consultants that Park & Ride would not work in Leeds,” he said. “However, our Elland road Park & Ride was such a success that we had to expand the number of parking spaces provided, and we now have plans to extend it again to over 1,000 spaces.

“Our new Temple Green Park & Ride is already at 70% capacity after a few months.”

SESSION 4 – What Impact will Disruptive Technology Have on the Bus Sector?

Kevin O’ Connor – Success of ArrivaClick

Kevin O’ Connor’s presentation was largely concerned with the company’s ArrivaClick service in Sittingbourne and how it has developed. He described the demand-responsive service as a small pilot, but it appears to have been a runaway success.

“One of the things we have learnt is how dynamic we can be with the new service,” Kevin said. “Algorithms can be changed very quickly, and there is no consultation or registration period.”

ArrivaClick has seen a 15% increase in usage every week, and Kevin claims it is now used by 12% of the population of Sittingbourne – highly impressive market penetration. He also said that around 52% of its customers have swapped over from using a car or taxi, though he admitted some have moved across from other bus services.

Kevin added: “Do I think the bus will be extinct in two years because of demand-responsive services? No, but I think it will be an integral part of transport.”

“The transport world is changing fast and as a mass transit specialist, we have to change with it. We have to be part of that innovation and change.

“The technology is one part, but the tricky part is putting wheels on the ground and making it work, getting the customer service and operation right. Operators have a huge part to play.”

Dr Jillian Anable – The lie of ride-sharing

The University of Leeds Professor of Transport and Energy, Dr Jillian Anable, was critical of the term ‘ride-sharing,’ arguing that many operators of such services are poor examples of such a concept.

She gave a quote from another Professor, Graham Currie, which states: “unscrupulous use of the word ‘sharing’ by technologists to imply that new mobility modes are good incorrectly asserts they involve lots of shared vehicle occupancy. This is to show they are much better than urban public transport, which is not good and doesn’t involve sharing in any good sort of way and which has to be got rid of as soon as possible.”

She also displayed an image which mocked another image previously seen at a similar conference, comparing the road space taken up by 60 or so cars compared with a single bus, only this time, the image of the 60 cars and their occupants appeared four times, with the labels ‘car’, ‘electric car’, ‘Uber’, and ‘autonomous car’, implying the type of car made little-to-no difference to road space efficiency and drawing a laugh from the audience.

“The average passenger occupancy of an Uber is 1.66 – barely better than what we see in private cars in the UK – 1.55,” Jillian stated.

The other argument raised was the need to listen to young people: “It is not easy to understand what is happening with the younger generation.

“The trend has been for younger people to own and use cars less since the 1990s. This is also less likely to bounce back in later life – it’s not just a postponement.

“In some places there is a growth of use of public transport by younger people. They are important to the patronage of buses, but are also the least satisfied passenger group.

“They want the technology available today, the here and now, which can be deployed quickly.”

Simon Craven – Conditioning of passenger expectations

Special Advisor to Go-Ahead Group, Simon Craven, stated that the trend for people to spend tens of hours per week online was driving increasing expectations.

He said: “More and more people use online activity for information and social interaction, and are spending all this time in an ecosystem which evolves rapidly.

“The devices they are using appear to get twice as good for the same money every three years, and this rate of development conditions their expectations. For that consumer, public transport changes at the same rate as a river deepens a valley. It still meets the need, but people instinctively feel it is old-fashioned.”

Simon also looked at how technology sector money is being ‘used as a weapon.’

“The tech app is not the biggest weapon – it is having investors willing to burn millions of dollars, running at sustained losses, until they become global megacorporations,” he said. “That advantage comes not from the technology itself, but the choices of investors.

“However, bubbles always pop, and we’re reaching the end of an era in cheap money. Sooner or later every operator has to generate enough income.”

Paul Buchanan – autonomous difficulties and opportunities

Paul Buchanan of Volterra provided a candid and entertaining talk on autonomous vehicles. He said he does not like the term ‘disruptive technology,’ preferring to think of it as ‘opportunity creating technology’ instead.

He spoke about how transport is a difficult industry to manage, with investment and innovation not always taking things in the expected direction.

“We spend billions on faster modes of transport, but in reality, the time savings merely result in passengers travelling further, not for less time,” he said.

“When ABS was brought out, there were headlines about insurance companies ripping people off because it was a safety feature that made insurance more expensive, but those journalists failed to see that people with ABS tended to drive like lunatics and have more accidents at the time.”

Paul was positive about the potential for autonomous vehicles to result in fewer accidents and faster travel times. He highlighted the fact that 94% of accidents are a result of driver error, which can be prevented if the technology works.

However, for this to happen, he said there would need to be some politically difficult sacrifices: “You will need to charge for use of roads, to prevent empty vehicles from driving around all the time. Once market penetration gets to a certain level, you would actually need to ban all human drivers for many benefits to be realised, which will be hugely unpopular.

“You would also have to protect buses, pedestrians and cyclists, and could easily have a problem when pedestrians learn they can all walk out in front of the vehicles and cause massive autonomous traffic jams.

“It’s not as easy to implement as we think, and there are lots of complications.”

Pete Ferguson – use of data

Prospective CEO Pete Ferguson said that there has been an ‘explosion of data’ which allows people to see for the first time what is happening across all sorts of difficult activities across a city.

“We can see where people are joining a public transport network, where they are getting off and why they are getting off there,” he said. “You have so much material to work with.”

He said technology apps are supported by a lot of data analytics, and use this data to continually improve the supply it is providing.

“We see data and technology affecting the industry in three key ways,” Pete said. “It allows operators to be more responsive – ensuring services are aligned with the demand data we can see.

“The data can also be more integrated, allowing us to assess the impact of changes to other modes of transport.

“Lastly, the sustainability issues intensify the need for organisations to collaborate, because we need to be testing our impacts against a much wider range of criteria, which requires a much wider range of stakeholders.”
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