The next steps in the industry

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On Tuesday 2 July, coinciding with Catch the Bus Week, CPT held a press day, hosted by new CEO Graham Vidler at its headquarters in London. The event served as an opportunity for Graham to introduce himself to the media, explore the most recent developments in the industry and emphasise the importance of the bus. Madaline Dunn reports

With 1000 members, 850 operators and 150 suppliers, CPT members range from small family-owned coach businesses to multinational transport operators, with the organiCatch the Bus Weeksation acting as the voice of the coach and bus industry. The press day saw CPT representatives do just that, informing correspondents from the national and trade press on the current climate and the changes to come.

Graham Vidler, who joined CPT as CEO on Tuesday 7 May, began by explaining why everyone should be concerned about the bus. “The bus is the biggest form of public transport,” he said. “On average people make more journeys by bus per year, than taxi, underground and train combined.” [wlm_nonmember][…]

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Referring to the Department of Transport (DfT) National Transport Survey 2017, Graham outlined the many roles that the bus serves in society, transporting 2.5 million people to work, and over one million school children, as well as supporting 250,000 jobs in the industry.

Essential for the environment

“It is essential to some of the environmental challenges we are facing,” said Graham, elaborating on some of the environmental benefits of using the bus, and its ability to reduce carbon emissions. According to the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership, a new diesel bus creates less pollution per vehicle than a new diesel car. With 65% of new bus registrations being low carbon emission, the industry is taking the lead ahead over any other sector on low carbon technology.

Cash flows

Delving further into the intricacies of the industry, the CPT CEO explained the types of services and their related cashflows, with 25% of buses contracted in London, 65% commercial and 10% tendered by local authorities, which he outlined had halved since 2010.

Speaking on the cashflows outside of London, Graham noted that 63% of operating revenue comes from fares, 12% from local authorities and 25% from concessionary reimbursement (£0.8bn) with the Bus Service Operators Grant (BSOG) standing at £0.2bn.

Passenger numbers

Speaking on a salient issue at the heart of the industry, Graham touched on the crisis surrounding patronage in the UK: “We all know that the number of passengers on buses is in decline, but perhaps some are less familiar with the long-term nature of this decline,” he said. “Patronage fell sharply in the 30 years following the 1950s.” Drawing on DfT’s research on bus journeys Graham noted that, while bus journeys were at a high of 30 million in 1950, by the 1980s when buses were deregulated, they had fallen to six million, stabilising at 4-4.5 million currently.

The research showed that between 2011-2017 200 million journeys were lost – KMG investigated some of the reasons.

What’s driving the change in bus journeys?

Drawing upon KMG’s research, Graham explained that between 2011-2017, the population in England grew, with the structure more favourable to the bus, due to a larger teenage and elderly population, however this was offset by an increase in car ownership. Accompanying this, while this period saw a record high in terms of employment, this was juxtaposed with an increase in self-employment and work flexibility.

Increasing numbers of people shopping online rather than visiting the high street has also contributed to a decline, with 10-15% opting for online, which has continued to rise.Catch the Bus Week

Main factors contributing to decline

Other contributing factors to patronage decline include bus fares increasing faster than the rate of inflation, although slower bus journey times due to congestion stood out as the biggest depressant of passenger numbers.

“Typically, we see journey times in urban areas increase by 1% every year. Year after year this builds up,” Said Graham.

Congestion serves as a huge factor in decreasing bus patronage, Graham used the example of Brighton and Hove which has had to invest an extra £1m in vehicles every year just to keep pace with congestion. This in turn contributes to increase fares, with a 40% increase in Metropolitan areas over the last 15 years which also affects patronage.

Graham also presented the local differences of passenger journeys between 2009/2010 which varied drastically, seeing a 75% decline in Rutlands but a 50% increase in Bristol.

While it was acknowledged that municipal ownership is often cited as a great way to improve bus services, it was noted that this alone is not enough, with a continued decline in Blackpool and Warrington.

Partnerships were also highlighted for their potential, with the huge growth in Bristol partly due to successful partnerships with local authorities and community transport contributing to shorter journey times.

Passenger satisfaction

Despite falling passenger numbers, with a 4% decrease nationwide, passenger satisfaction was noted to be increasingly high at 88% according to the most recent Transport Focus survey, with 75% happy with most aspects of travel. While only 64% were satisfied with its value for money, this is higher than the rail equivalent, it was noted. The high level of satisfaction was attributed to the widespread roll out of CCTV, Automatic Vehicle Location, smart card readers, and WiFi.

A look ahead

In terms of the future of the bus, Graham said that the 2020s will continue to be affected by changing working lives, and that the industry would subsequently need to adapt to this as well as moulding to either the death or reinvention of the high street. Accompanying this, he noted that extensive and improved data would positively impact on the industry, while autonomous vehicles would bring a challenge to the structure and running of the industry. Climate action however, stood at the forefront of future change, which Graham said the industry needed to continue working towards in terms of green travel.

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