David Cutts is Operations Director of Go-Ahead London and has overall responsibility for Go-Ahead Singapore. With a combined fleet of nearly 3,000 buses and approximately 8,500 staff, including the multi-award winning Waterloo electric bus garage in Central London, he is Britain’s most experienced electric bus operator
In addition to being Operations Director of Go-Ahead London, I retain overall responsibility for Go-Ahead Singapore. I am fortunate to have travelled to Singapore on a number of occasions over the last couple of years and each trip creates its own impressive memories, be they work related or personal. For example, the public transport network continues to expand, with increased bus volume, underpinned by service reliability. Changi Airport, once again independently judged to be the best in the world, is a pleasure to travel through. [wlm_nonmember][…]
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I admire much of Singapore’s infrastructure, and not just in the transport sector, with a degree of envy. Britain is, of course, a much bigger land mass and London’s population, currently just under nine million, is well on the way to being twice as large as Singapore’s, but the Lion City is an attractive place to trade and one where Go-Ahead would like to grow its business for the long-term.
Changing world
Buses have been my entire 32-year career and the key fundamentals remain largely unchanged. Good staff, in the right place, at the right time, delivering excellent service, who are generously rewarded for a job well done. I guess most companies would say the same. Get the basics right and the rest usually follows.
You will have read, and no doubt personally experienced, how technology’s changed the world in which we live. Flight bookings no longer require a visit to the travel agent and your phone provides accurate public transport arrival times. Little surprise, therefore, that such innovation applies to the vehicles in which we travel in and/or drive, including buses.
The three decades I referred to earlier have not been without transformation and excitement of their own, but the buses used during this time have been fairly typical throughout, in that they all used a fossil fuel, diesel, and an engine, to gain traction. There have been good reasons for this, but recent changes, especially technological advances by vehicle manufacturers and government legislation, means the era of the diesel-only bus is coming to an end over the coming years.
Which brings me onto electric buses, albeit via my breakfast. As a youngster, my family had their milk delivered by the milkman. There may well have been ‘milkwomen’, but I personally never saw one. The milkman would typically arrive most days, including at the weekend, and in doing so, he undertook a fairly unremarkable task in a truly remarkable vehicle. He used an electric milkfloat. Silent, reliable and speedy, it was something I marvelled at, initially wondering where the engine had gone, until I realised batteries propelled the unit. It may have taken the best part of nearly half a century since then, but electric buses, if they do not currently serve your stop, will soon be doing so in one form or other in the near future.
Research by Bloomberg shows that an impressive 386,000 electric buses were sold across the world in 2017 and this figure is projected to rise by 2025 to 1.2 million. As Chong Koh Ping, China Correspondent of Singapore’s main newspaper, The Straits Times, reported earlier this year, China is very much at the forefront of the electric bus revolution, especially when it comes to vehicle manufacture and operation.
My own experience of operating electric buses in London, which dates back to 2013, has been a positive one. It would be fair to say any new, or different, way of working comes with a degree of trepidation. Will it function in the ‘real world’ and what if it goes wrong are reasonable questions and both form an element of the planning process. In the four and a half years Go-Ahead London has been running electric buses, a number of factual arguments apply to making the case for more of them. In doing so, the wider industry, including transport authorities and users, should not fear the demise of diesel power over the coming decades.
First, the technology’s proved itself in a very demanding environment. Like most world cites, London’s buses stop and start every few hundred yards. A reliable drivetrain is therefore essential and any fragility quickly exposed. I am pleased to say London’s electrics were literally plugged in and played. Seamlessly, reliably and with passengers barely noticing any difference to the internal combustion engined buses they replaced, which is a tremendous accolade. Range anxiety was a concern, but with smart charging and schedules planned appropriately, our anxiety was soon calmed.
Second, we partnered with organisations willing to go on the learning journey, no pun intended, with an open-minded, collective and ‘can do’ approach to service delivery. Have there been issues? Some, but all parties are committed to addressing them in a co-operative manner, without end-user impacts. As a result, a full compliment of electric buses, currently around 90 in our London fleet, enter service daily and are well thought of by colleagues and users alike. I should point out, this number applies to pure electrics and does not take into account the thousands of hybrid (diesel-electric) vehicles that serve the city.
Third, Transport for London (TfL), in its role as planner and regulator, supported by the Mayor, are delivering a range of measures, not just transport related, to improve London’s air quality and general health. There are numerous reasons for this, the most pressing of which being that around 10,000 Londoners die prematurely every year because of poor air pollution.
So what of Singapore? At the Land Transport Authority’s request, Go-Ahead’s Loyang Garage was home to an electric bus trial for approximately six months between November 2016 and May 2017 to assess the suitability of such vehicles. The combination of a generally warm climate, a bus service typified by ‘stop/start’ conditions and a requirement for air-conditioning made this the ultimate test drive in many ways. I am pleased to say the bus performed well and, like London, was popular with colleagues and passengers. During the course of the trial, in March last year, the Second Minister for Transport, Ng Chee Meng, announced tenders for 60 electric buses and 50 hybrids, which suggests the technology has proved itself.
One size does not fit all
I should point out alternatives exist and are being applied, including in London. They include hydrogen-powered buses and a retrofit programme of older diesel engines, to bring them up to Euro VI emission standards. Put simply, one size does not fit all. The relentless march of technology also means we can expect further advances over the coming years, some of which are bound to be seismic. Which makes it an exciting time to be the industry, as change is happening at a relentless pace. Battery technology is also moving on so quickly, both in vehicle range and smaller, lighter configurations, all of which makes the case for electric vehicles even more compelling.
It is also important to highlight a few other factors when considering electric buses. There are very real capital costs to consider and disruptive building works to prepare for. Unlike Singapore, London rarely constructs brand new bus garages, so existing premises require creative planning and conversion. Colleagues and passengers must be consulted and key partners, from electricity providers to vehicle manufacturers, need to show flexibility.
Electric buses are premium products and investment payback comes over a number of years, not in the short-term. This is where the London bus contracting model, which is similar to Singapore’s, has the ability to deliver beneficial change as policy is planned at the centre, by government and/or the transport authority. In London, TfL specify all aspects of a route contract, including the vehicle type. In doing so, it allows the private sector bus operator to determine who it partners with. This is underpinned by rewards for exceptional performance and penalties when exacting standards are not achieved. A poor quality supplier would not therefore last very long for obvious reasons.
The Bloomberg study I previously referred to predicts electric bus sales will accelerate to 1.2 million by 2025, with China accounting for much of the demand. The study also estimates a decline in battery prices will make electric buses more competitive than diesel within a decade. Time will be the judge of this, but there can be no denying most, if not all, world cities are preparing for a different method of bus service delivery.
Singapore has a proud history of delivering change, especially in the transport sector. Change presents opportunities and I read with interest a recent report in the Financial Times about Sir James Dyson’s plans for an electric car. This creative British company anticipates China to be its largest export market for a product of this kind and should the vehicle come to fruition, Singapore, where Dyson has exisiting manufacturing operations, is, by all accounts, a serious contender to build it.
Policy makers in London and Singapore find buses attractive for the same reasons. They are flexible and cost-effective people movers. The fixed routes along which they operate mean they can reasonably easily be converted to electric operation, with charging points located at garages, bus stations or other locations along the service.
The understandable demand for clean air make electric buses inviting and the successes achieved to date should encourage an even greater take up. From London to Loyang, and beyond, the industry is playing its part.
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